List of target seats in the 2024 United Kingdom general election
The 2024 United Kingdom general election will be held on 4 July 2024. These are the target seats for each of the political parties, according to notional results from the previous election in 2019.[1] They are not necessarily the seats that the parties are choosing to target.
Due to boundary changes following the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, these target seats are determined by notional results of the previous election using the new constituencies as if they were contested in 2019.[2]
List by party
Conservative
Conservative target seats[3] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | ||
1 | Warrington South[note 1] | Labour Party | 0.06% | |||
2 | Coventry North West | Labour Party | 0.22% | |||
3 | Kensington and Bayswater[note 2] | Labour Party | 0.36% | |||
4 | Alyn and Deeside | Labour Party | 0.39% | |||
5 | Wirral West | Labour Party | 0.41% | |||
6 | Beckenham and Penge[note 3] | Labour Party | 0.52% | |||
7 | Heywood and Middleton North[note 4] | Labour Party | 0.80% | |||
8 | Dagenham and Rainham | Labour Party | 0.80% | |||
9 | Coventry South[note 5] | Labour Party | 0.86% | |||
10 | Warwick and Leamington | Labour Party | 1.12% | |||
11 | Bedford | Labour Party | 1.19% | |||
12 | Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley[note 5] | Labour Party | 1.31% | |||
13 | Doncaster Central | Labour Party | 1.38% | |||
14 | Ceredigion Preseli[note 5][note 6] | Plaid Cymru | 1.40% | |||
15 | Rawmarsh and Conisbrough[note 5] | Labour Party | 1.55% | |||
16 | Chesterfield | Labour Party | 1.61% | |||
17 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Labour Party | 1.62% | |||
18 | Warrington North | Labour Party | 1.63% | |||
19 | Canterbury | Labour Party | 1.89% | |||
20 | Halifax | Labour Party | 1.99% | |||
21 | Newport West and Islwyn[note 5] | Labour Party | 2.06% | |||
22 | Perth and Kinross-shire[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 2.09% | |||
23 | Cramlington and Killingworth[note 5][note 7] | Labour Party | 2.24% | |||
24 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 2.50% | |||
25 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 2.56% | |||
26 | Doncaster North | Labour Party | 2.58% | |||
27 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Labour Party | 2.89% | |||
28 | Gower | Labour Party | 2.93% | |||
29 | Leeds East | Labour Party | 3.06% | |||
30 | Leeds West and Pudsey[note 5][note 8] | Labour Party | 3.09% | |||
31 | Wolverhampton South East | Labour Party | 3.10% | |||
32 | Tynemouth | Labour Party | 3.26% | |||
33 | Bradford South | Labour Party | 3.34% | |||
34 | Croydon East [note 5] | Labour Party | 3.37% | |||
35 | Sunderland Central | Labour Party | 3.41% | |||
36 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Labour Party | 3.48% | |||
37 | East Lothian | Scottish National Party [note 9] | 3.62% | |||
38 | Houghton and Sunderland South | Labour Party | 3.65% | |||
39 | Kingston upon Hull East | Labour Party | 3.67% | |||
40 | Rotherham | Labour Party | 3.79% |
Labour
Labour target seats[4] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | ||
1 | Burnley | Conservative Party | 0.13% | |||
2 | Leigh and Atherton[note 5] | Conservative Party | 0.33% | |||
3 | High Peak | Conservative Party | 0.54% | |||
4 | Bangor Aberconwy[note 5] | Conservative Party | 0.77% | |||
5 | Wolverhampton West[note 5] | Conservative Party | 0.92% | |||
6 | Bury South | Conservative Party | 0.94% | |||
7 | Bury North | Conservative Party | 1.20% | |||
8 | Bolton North East | Conservative Party | 1.28% | |||
9 | Watford | Conservative Party | 1.35% | |||
10 | Chingford and Woodford Green | Conservative Party | 1.47% | |||
11 | Wycombe | Conservative Party | 1.58% | |||
12 | Birmingham Northfield | Conservative Party | 1.68% | |||
13 | Leeds North West[note 10] | Conservative Party | 1.80% | |||
14 | Stroud | Conservative Party | 2.03% | |||
15 | Keighley and Ilkley[note 5] | Conservative Party | 2.11% | |||
16 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Conservative Party | 2.11% | |||
17 | East Lothian | Scottish National Party [note 11] | 2.15% | |||
18 | Whitehaven and Workington[note 5] | Conservative Party | 2.17% | |||
19 | Gedling | Conservative Party | 2.22% | |||
20 | Walsall and Bloxwich[note 5] | Conservative Party | 2.40% | |||
21 | Peterborough | Conservative Party | 2.47% | |||
22 | Vale of Glamorgan | Conservative Party | 2.57% | |||
23 | West Bromwich[note 5] | Conservative Party | 2.60% | |||
24 | Mid Cheshire[note 5] | Conservative Party | 2.66% | |||
25 | Wakefield and Rothwell[note 5] [note 12] | Conservative Party | 2.67% | |||
26 | Ynys Mon | Conservative Party | 2.69% | |||
27 | Derby North | Conservative Party | 2.70% | |||
28 | Bridgend | Conservative Party | 2.73% | |||
29 | Clwyd North[note 5] | Conservative Party | 2.76% | |||
30 | Lancaster and Wyre[note 5][note 13] | Conservative Party | 3.05% | |||
31 | Hastings and Rye | Conservative Party | 3.36% | |||
32 | Eltham and Chislehurst [note 5][note 14] | Conservative Party | 3.37% | |||
33 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Scottish National Party [note 15] | 3.41% | |||
34 | Lincoln | Conservative Party | 3.47% | |||
35 | Hyndburn | Conservative Party | 3.48% | |||
36 | Broxtowe | Conservative Party | 3.58% | |||
37 | Chipping Barnet | Conservative Party | 3.60% | |||
38 | Northampton North | Conservative Party | 3.85% | |||
39 | Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor [note 5] | Conservative Party | 3.93% | |||
40 | Hendon | Conservative Party | 4.01% | |||
41 | Truro and Falmouth | Conservative Party | 4.04% | |||
42 | Wrexham | Conservative Party | 4.18% | |||
43 | Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice [note 5] [note 16] | Conservative Party | 4.35% | |||
44 | Blackpool South [note 12] | Conservative Party | 4.36% | |||
45 | Calder Valley | Conservative Party | 4.52% | |||
46 | Southampton Itchen | Conservative Party | 4.70% | |||
47 | Milton Keynes Central [note 5] | Conservative Party | 4.70% | |||
48 | Clwyd East [note 5] | Conservative Party | 5.00% | |||
49 | Glasgow North East | Scottish National Party | 5.01% | |||
50 | Darlington | Conservative Party | 5.36% | |||
51 | Redcar | Conservative Party | 5.45% | |||
52 | Ipswich | Conservative Party | 5.53% | |||
53 | Coatbridge and Bellshill [note 5] | Scottish National Party | 5.54% | |||
54 | Altrincham and Sale West | Conservative Party | 5.61% | |||
55 | Swindon South | Conservative Party | 5.70% | |||
56 | Cities of London and Westminster | Conservative Party | 5.73% | |||
57 | Airdrie and Shotts | Scottish National Party | 5.74% | |||
58 | Bolsover | Conservative Party | 5.77% | |||
59 | Shipley | Conservative Party | 5.78% | |||
60 | Crewe and Nantwich | Conservative Party | 5.79% | |||
61 | Rutherglen [note 5] | Scottish National Party | 5.90% | |||
62. | Loughborough | Conservative Party | 5.90% | |||
63. | Midlothian | Scottish National Party | 5.92% | |||
64. | Rushcliffe | Conservative Party | 6.12% | |||
65. | Tipton and Wednesbury [note 5] | Conservative Party | 6.14% | |||
66. | Norwich North | Conservative Party | 6.25% | |||
67. | Spen Valley [note 5] | Conservative Party | 6.42% | |||
68. | Glasgow South West | Scottish National Party | 6.43% | |||
69. | Milton Keynes North | Conservative Party | 6.55% | |||
70. | Worcester | Conservative Party | 6.64% | |||
71. | Glasgow North | Scottish National Party | 6.72% | |||
72. | Rother Valley | Conservative Party | 6.74% | |||
73. | Southport | Conservative Party | 6.80% | |||
74. | Ashfield | Conservative Party [note 17] | 6.81% | |||
75. | Shrewsbury[note 5] | Conservative Party | 6.96% | |||
76. | East Worthing and Shoreham | Conservative Party | 7.03% | |||
77. | Caerfyrddin[note 5] | Conservative Party | 7.04% | |||
78. | Penistone and Stocksbridge | Conservative Party | 7.28% | |||
79. | Barrow and Furness | Conservative Party | 7.43% | |||
80. | Colne Valley | Conservative Party | 7.46% | |||
81. | Ceredigion Preseli[note 5] | Plaid Cymru | 7.49% | |||
82. | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Conservative Party | 7.61% | |||
83. | Glasgow East | Scottish National Party | 7.62% | |||
84. | Uxbridge and South Ruislip | Conservative Party | 7.77% | |||
85. | Mid and South Pembrokeshire[note 5] | Conservative Party | 7.84% | |||
86. | East Thanet[note 5] | Conservative Party | 7.91% | |||
87. | Corby and East Northamptonshire [note 5] | Conservative Party | 8.05% | |||
88. | Leeds South West and Morley[note 5] | Conservative Party | 8.16% | |||
89. | Hamilton and Clyde Valley[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 8.18% | |||
90. | Bishop Auckland | Conservative Party | 8.19% | |||
91. | Chelsea and Fulham | Conservative Party | 8.21% | |||
92. | Crawley | Conservative Party | 8.38% | |||
93. | Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) | Scottish National Party [note 18] | 8.42% | |||
94. | Harrow East | Conservative Party | 8.59% | |||
95. | South Ribble | Conservative Party | 8.65% | |||
96. | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Conservative Party | 8.73% | |||
97. | Bournemouth East | Conservative Party | 8.94% | |||
98. | Stevenage | Conservative Party | 8.98% | |||
99. | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke [note 5] | Scottish National Party | 9.11% | |||
100. | Glasgow South | Scottish National Party | 9.42% | |||
101. | Camborne and Redruth | Conservative Party | 9.55% | |||
102. | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 9.64% | |||
103. | Stoke-on-Trent North | Conservative Party | 9.65% | |||
104. | Gloucester | Conservative Party | 9.67% | |||
105. | Finchley and Golders Green | Conservative Party | 9.72% | |||
106. | York Outer | Conservative Party | 9.85% | |||
107. | Rossendale and Darwen | Conservative Party | 9.85% | |||
108. | Wolverhampton North East | Conservative Party | 9.92% | |||
109. | Macclesfield | Conservative Party | 9.94% | |||
110. | Blackpool North and Fleetwood[note 5] | Conservative Party | 10.11% | |||
111. | Monmouthshire[note 5] | Conservative Party | 10.25% | |||
112. | Glasgow West[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 10.29% | |||
113. | Scarborough and Whitby | Conservative Party | 10.33% | |||
114. | Dunfermline and Dollar[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 10.36% | |||
115. | Welwyn Hatfield | Conservative Party | 10.40% | |||
116. | Hitchin | Conservative Party | 10.42% | |||
117. | West Dunbartonshire | Scottish National Party | 10.56% | |||
118. | Bolton West | Conservative Party | 10.65% | |||
119. | Scunthorpe | Conservative Party | 10.72% | |||
120. | Carlisle | Conservative Party | 10.82% | |||
121. | Erewash | Conservative Party | 10.86% | |||
122. | Bournemouth West | Conservative Party | 10.86% | |||
123. | Edinburgh North and Leith | Scottish National Party | 11.03% | |||
124. | Earley and Woodley[note 5] | Conservative Party | 11.05% | |||
125. | Glenrothes and Mid Fife[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 11.06% | |||
126. | Colchester | Conservative Party | 11.14% | |||
127. | Stockton West | Conservative Party | 11.29% | |||
128. | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 11.29% | |||
129. | Hexham | Conservative Party | 11.29% | |||
130. | Ossett and Denby Dale[note 5] | Conservative Party | 11.34% | |||
131. | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland[note 5] | Conservative Party | 11.44% | |||
132. | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Plaid Cymru | 11.45% | |||
133. | Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme[note 5] | Conservative Party | 11.70% | |||
134. | Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes[note 5] | Conservative Party | 11.71% | |||
135. | Pendle and Clitheroe[note 5] | Conservative Party | 11.92% | |||
136. | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Scottish National Party | 11.96% | |||
137. | Basingstoke | Conservative Party | 12.02% | |||
138. | Bathgate and Linlithgow[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 12.11% | |||
139. | Dover and Deal[note 5] | Conservative Party | 12.13% | |||
140. | Penrith and Solway[note 5] | Conservative Party | 12.31% | |||
141. | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 12.45% | |||
142. | Telford | Conservative Party | 12.52% | |||
143. | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Scottish National Party | 12.56% | |||
144. | East Kilbride and Strathaven[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 12.60% | |||
145. | Livingston | Scottish National Party | 12.61% | |||
146. | Buckingham and Bletchley[note 5] | Conservative Party | 12.68% | |||
147. | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Conservative Party | 12.75% | |||
148. | North East Derbyshire | Conservative Party | 13.04% | |||
149. | Croydon South | Conservative Party | 13.06% | |||
150. | Rugby | Conservative Party | 13.10% | |||
Other seats gained and lost in by-elections that Labour are targeting[5] [note 12] | ||||||
163 | Selby [note 5] | Conservative Party | 14.06% | |||
211 | Wellingborough and Rushden [note 5] | Conservative Party | 17.05% | |||
- | Bristol North East [note 5] | Labour Party | - | |||
- | Mid Bedfordshire | Conservative Party | - | |||
- | Rochdale | Labour Party | - | |||
- | Tamworth | Conservative Party | - |
Liberal Democrats
Liberal Democrats target seats[6] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | ||
1 | Carshalton and Wallington | Conservative Party | 0.64% | |||
2 | North East Fife | Scottish National Party | 0.70% | |||
3 | Wimbledon | Conservative Party | 0.74% | |||
4 | Sheffield Hallam | Labour Party | 0.92% | |||
5 | South Cambridgeshire | Conservative Party | 1.25% | |||
6 | Cheltenham | Conservative Party | 1.25% | |||
7 | Mid Dunbartonshire[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 1.69% | |||
8 | Cheadle | Conservative Party | 2.09% | |||
9 | Eastbourne | Conservative Party | 2.11% | |||
10 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross[note 19] | Scottish National Party | 2.64% | |||
11 | Esher and Walton | Conservative Party | 2.68% | |||
12 | Guildford | Conservative Party | 2.96% | |||
13 | Lewes | Conservative Party | 3.71% | |||
14 | Hazel Grove | Conservative Party | 4.18% | |||
15 | Westmorland and Lonsdale[note 20] | Conservative Party | 4.74% | |||
16 | St Ives | Conservative Party | 4.85% | |||
17 | Finchley and Golders Green | Conservative Party | 5.98% | |||
18 | Cities of London and Westminster | Conservative Party | 6.05% | |||
19 | Winchester | Conservative Party | 7.08% | |||
20 | Taunton and Wellington[note 5] | Conservative Party | 7.84% | |||
21 | Harrogate and Knaresborough | Conservative Party | 7.91% | |||
22 | Cambridge | Labour Party | 8.14% | |||
23 | Sutton and Cheam | Conservative Party | 8.27% | |||
24 | Woking | Conservative Party | 8.50% | |||
25 | Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe[note 5] | Conservative Party | 8.70% | |||
26 | Eastleigh | Conservative Party | 8.72% | |||
27 | Didcot and Wantage[note 5] | Conservative Party | 9.22% | |||
28 | Bermondsey and Old Southwark | Labour Party | 9.28% | |||
29 | Dorking and Horley[note 5] | Conservative Party | 9.44% | |||
30 | Godalming and Ash[note 5] | Conservative Party | 9.63% | |||
31 | West Dorset | Conservative Party | 10.71% | |||
32 | Chelsea and Fulham | Conservative Party | 10.82% | |||
33 | Henley and Thame[note 5] | Conservative Party | 11.05% | |||
34 | Newbury | Conservative Party | 11.24% | |||
35 | Wokingham | Conservative Party | 11.59% | |||
36 | Hitchin[note 5] | Conservative Party | 11.67% | |||
37 | Hampstead and Highgate[note 5] | Labour Party | 11.68% | |||
38 | St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire[note 5] | Conservative Party | 12.24% | |||
39 | Ely and East Cambridgeshire[note 5] | Conservative Party | 12.35% | |||
40 | South Devon[note 5] | Conservative Party | 12.66% | |||
41 | Wells and Mendip Hills[note 5] | Conservative Party | 12.66% | |||
42 | Mid Sussex | Conservative Party | 12.90% | |||
43 | Frome and East Somerset[note 5][note 12] | Conservative Party | 12.92% | |||
44 | Thornbury and Yate | Conservative Party | 12.96% | |||
45 | Chippenham | Conservative Party | 13.06% | |||
46 | Farnham and Bordon[note 5] | Conservative Party | 13.27% | |||
47 | North Devon | Conservative Party | 13.33% | |||
48 | Glastonbury and Somerton[note 5][note 12] | Conservative Party | 13.33% | |||
49 | Tunbridge Wells | Conservative Party | 13.40% | |||
50 | Earley and Woodley[note 5] | Conservative Party | 13.48% | |||
Other seats gained in by-elections the Liberal Democrats are targeting[7][note 12] | ||||||
76 | Chesham and Amersham | Conservative Party | 16.96% | |||
142 | Tiverton and Minehead [note 5] | Conservative Party | 20.91% | |||
258 | Honiton and Sidmouth [note 5] | Conservative Party | 24.99% | |||
- | North Shropshire | Conservative Party | - |
Reform UK
The target seats for Reform UK are based on results of the Brexit Party in 2019.[8] The party didn't contest Conservative-held seats so their target seats based on the 2019 result are primarily in North East England and Wales.[9]
Reform UK target seats[10] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | ||
1 | Barnsley North[note 5] | Labour Party | 4.50% | |||
2 | Hartlepool[note 21] | Labour Party | 5.92% | |||
3 | Barnsley South[note 5] | Labour Party | 6.29% | |||
4 | Doncaster North | Labour Party | 12.82% | |||
5 | Easington | Labour Party | 14.31% | |||
6 | South Shields | Labour Party | 14.70% | |||
7 | Rotherham | Labour Party | 16.07% | |||
8 | Normanton and Hemsworth[note 5] | Labour Party | 16.19% | |||
9 | Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney[note 5] | Labour Party | 16.20% | |||
10 | Houghton and Sunderland South | Labour Party | 16.81% | |||
11 | Caerphilly | Labour Party | 16.85% | |||
12 | Kingston upon Hull East | Labour Party | 17.46% | |||
13 | Wigan | Labour Party | 18.55% | |||
14 | Pontypridd | Labour Party | 19.09% | |||
15 | Neath and Swansea East[note 5] | Labour Party | 19.38% | |||
16 | Washington and Gateshead South[note 5] | Labour Party | 19.60% | |||
17 | Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley[note 5] | Labour Party | 19.77% | |||
18 | Jarrow and Gateshead East[note 5] | Labour Party | 19.84% | |||
19 | Torfaen | Labour Party | 20.12% | |||
20 | Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice[note 5][note 22] | Conservative Party | 20.31% | |||
Other seat Reform UK is targeting | ||||||
32 | Ashfield | Conservative Party [note 17] | 21.88% | |||
- | Boston and Skegness[11] | Conservative Party | - |
SNP
Scottish National Party target seats[12] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | ||
1 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Conservative Party | 0.79% | |||
2 | Dumfries and Galloway | Conservative Party | 1.48% | |||
3 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East[note 5] | Conservative Party | 2.61% | |||
4 | Edinburgh West | Liberal Democrats | 2.62% | |||
5 | Gordon and Buchan[note 5][note 23] | Conservative Party | 3.39% | |||
6 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | Conservative Party | 4.26% | |||
7 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Conservative Party | 4.84% | |||
8 | Orkney and Shetland | Liberal Democrats | 5.41% | |||
9 | Edinburgh South | Labour Party | 10.18% | |||
Other seats the SNP is targeting | ||||||
- | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross[note 24] | Scottish National Party[note 24] | 5.00% | |||
- | North East Fife[note 25] | Scottish National Party[note 25] | 1.00% | |||
- | Rutherglen and Hamilton West[note 26] | Scottish National Party[note 26] | 15%[note 26] |
Plaid Cymru
Plaid Cymru target seats[13] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | ||
1 | Ynys Mon | Conservative Party | 3.48% | |||
2 | Caerfyrddin[note 5] | Conservative Party | 4.25% | |||
3 | Llanelli | Labour Party | 9.53% | |||
4 | Caerphilly | Labour Party | 14.59% | |||
5 | Pontypridd | Labour Party | 17.87% | |||
6 | Neath and Swansea East[note 5] | Labour Party | 19.70% |
Green Party
Green Party of England and Wales, Green Party Northern Ireland and Scottish Greens target seats[14] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | ||
1 | Bristol Central[note 5] | Labour Party | 16.23% | |||
2 | Isle of Wight West[note 5] | Conservative Party | 19.30% | |||
3 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Scottish National Party | 20.26% | |||
4 | West Tyrone | Sinn Féin | 20.53% | |||
5 | Dunfermline and Dollar[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 21.35% | |||
6 | Frome and East Somerset[note 5] | Conservative Party | 21.61% | |||
7 | Isle of Wight East[note 5] | Conservative Party | 21.70% | |||
8 | Hampstead and Highgate[note 5] | Labour Party | 21.99% | |||
9 | East Kilbride and Strathaven[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 22.24% | |||
10 | Livingston | Scottish National Party | 22.34% | |||
11 | Bathgate and Linlithgow[note 5] | Scottish National Party | 22.46% | |||
12 | Edinburgh South West | Scottish National Party | 22.60% | |||
Other seats Greens are targeting[15] | ||||||
82 | Waveney Valley | Conservative Party | 26.45% | |||
- | North Herefordshire | Conservative Party | - |
Northern Ireland parties
Target seats requiring swings of under 10%:
Ulster Unionist Party[16] | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing Needed |
1. | Fermanagh and South Tyrone | Sinn Féin | 0.49% |
2. | South Antrim | Democratic Unionist Party | 3.56% |
Sinn Féin[17] | |||
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing Needed |
1. | Upper Bann | Democratic Unionist Party | 8.05% |
Democratic Unionist Party[18] | |||
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing Needed |
1. | North Down | Alliance Party of Northern Ireland | 3.09% |
2. | Belfast North | Sinn Féin | 3.88% |
3. | South Down | Sinn Féin | 9.06% |
4. | West Tyrone | Sinn Féin | 9.20% |
Social Democratic and Labour Party[19] | |||
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing Needed |
1. | South Down | Sinn Féin | 1.80% |
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland[20] | |||
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing Needed |
1. | Belfast East | Democratic Unionist Party | 2.91% |
2. | Strangford | Democratic Unionist Party | 7.07% |
3. | East Antrim | Democratic Unionist Party | 7.96% |
4. | Lagan Valley | Democratic Unionist Party | 8.12% |
Notes
- ^ Warrington South was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Kensington was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Beckenham was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Heywood and Middleton was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd ce cf cg ch ci cj ck cl cm cn co cp cq cr cs ct cu cv cw cx New seat
- ^ Preseli Pembrokeshire was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Plaid Cymru seat under new boundaries
- ^ Blyth Valley was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but its successor seat is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ Pudsey was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Leeds West, is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
- ^ The incumbent MP is Kenny MacAskill from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
- ^ Leeds North West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ The incumbent MP is Kenny MacAskill from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
- ^ a b c d e f Predecessor seat gained in by-election
- ^ Wyre and Preston North was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Lancaster and Fleetwood which was won by Labour, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ Eltham was won by Labour in 2019, but merged with Bromley and Chislehurst which was won by the Conservatives, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ The incumbent MP is Neale Hanvey from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
- ^ Kingston upon Hull West was won by Labour in 2019, but merged with Haltemprice and Howden, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ a b The incumbent MP is Lee Anderson from Reform UK who defected from the Conservatives
- ^ The incumbent is Independent MP Angus MacNeil who was expelled from the SNP
- ^ Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries
- ^ Westmorland and Lonsdale was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ Hartlepool was won by the Conservatives in the 2021 Hartlepool by-election
- ^ Hull West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ Gordon was won by the SNP in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries
- ^ a b Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat was considered ultra-marginal but now has a notional SNP majority of over 3,000 votes.
- ^ a b North East Fife was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat is considered ultra-marginal.
- ^ a b c Rutherglen and Hamilton West was won by Labour in the 2023 by-election, but is still notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries.
References
- ^ Leach, Anna; Hoog, Niels de. "UK general election: the seats the Tories will lose if the polls are right". the Guardian. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "List of general election top target seats, by party". The Independent. 16 January 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Conservative Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Labour Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 10 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ Eaton, George (29 January 2024). "How Labour's path to a majority has eased". New Statesman. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
- ^ "Liberal Democrat Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Liberal Democrats targeting Tory seats in election fight back". BBC News. 27 January 2023. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
- ^ "Could Reform UK surge sink Tory election hopes?". BBC News. 16 February 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ Penna, Dominic; Corfe, Ollie (28 February 2024). "Six graphs that show Reform UK could be kingmakers at the election". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Reform UK Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Reform UK leader Richard Tice to stand in Boston and Skegness". 23 May 2024. Retrieved 23 May 2024.
- ^ "SNP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling.
- ^ "Plaid Cymru Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Green Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ Walker, Peter (5 October 2023). "Greens head to Brighton targeting four seats at next election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "UUP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Sinn Fein Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "DUP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "SDLP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
- ^ "Alliance NI Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
See also
- List of target seats in the 2019 United Kingdom general election
- List of target seats in the 2017 United Kingdom general election
- List of target seats in the 2015 United Kingdom general election
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